Tag Archives: Relegation

Game On: The battle against relegation

What will his emotions be at the end of the season?

I am not Queens Park Rangers fan, but every Saturday I find myself sitting on the edge of my seat, checking the results, willing for QPR to win. I have no explanation as to why I do this but most fans always seem to have a team they would like to win the battle against relegation and a team they would like to see drop like a stone.

Okay, so a team should be for life and not just for Christmas (or in this case the run in) but there are exceptions to the rule, and the run in to the end of the season is one of them. So I have decided to briefly adopt QPR, a team I am willing to do well, a team I cheer as the results come in and as was this case this weekend (March 9th, 2013), I was pleased to see that for the first time since April 2011 they have won two consecutive games –come on!!!

Don’t ask me why I decide to give so much emotion to a team I don’t really care about for the rest of the season. It may be because I feel sorry for a team in their predicament; it may be because I feel they don’t deserve to be in such a mess, it may be I have an affinity for the manager. In this case it is Harry Redknapp – the man who is the king of leading clubs to the great escape and performing miracles to keep a team in the Premier League – he has done it before. Or maybe it is because I dislike the teams around them, and think they deserve to go done.

Whatever it is, I will be cheering for QPR to the bitter end and with only ten games to go, the battle is on to see who will survive.

Unless something unusual happens and a team suddenly begins to plummet down the table, (Blackpool are the only team in the previous 12 years to suffer relegation after being in 15th position or higher with 30 points still available) the main five contenders (given their place in the league) for the drop are –

Queens Park Rangers (position 20th, bottom with 23 points): the club has been bottom all season, and was bottom at Christmas – given the ‘Curse of Christmas’ – a name given to the trend where the team at the bottom at Christmas has been relegated – the odds are not looking good. But given their current good form, the easiest run-in of the bottom five clubs and the skill of the manager to recognize which players in his squad have the desire to fight and save the club they might stand a chance.

Verdict: It will come down to the last game of the season, but they will survive.

Southampton (position 16th, bottom with 28 points): Southampton has been struggling all season. They have the ability to play wonderful football and with a new manager at the helm they were starting to move up the table. However the honeymoon was short lived and they have only picked up 1 point from their last 3 games.

Verdict: They need to pick themselves up fast and start winning games again. But in my opinion they deserve to go down for sacking manager Nigel Adkins for no apparent reason.

Wigan (position 18th, bottom with 24 points): Wigan is a mystery. For the past two seasons they struggle all year and then suddenly come alive with about ten games to go, and start beating every one (in 2010/11 Wigan were bottom with ten games to go, they picked up 15 points from their last ten games and finished 16th). They absolutely killed Everton 3-0 in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup and if they continue to play this way they should finish outside of the bottom three.

Verdict: Roberto Martinez and his players have been here before and claim ‘they know how to cope’.  They have the quality to stay up, so lets hope they survive.

Aston Villa (position 17th, bottom with 27 points): Villa have failed to keep a clean sheet in their past 17 matches, they have the divisions worst goal difference and have been truly awful.

Verdict: they have been in the Premiership since 1988 and for such dire performances this season they should go down – please put everyone out of their misery, get relegated, and the Premier League will be glad to see them back again once they have sorted themselves out.

Reading (position 20th, joint bottom with 23 points): My home team, I feel sorry for Reading, a good team and a good manager but for lack of investment by this point of the season they have run out of steam. Reading manager Brian MaDermott highlighted the fact that the $10m Aston Villa paid for their leading goal scorer in the summer is more than he has spent on his entire team. Given the lack of experienced players and the fact that Reading have 6 meetings between the bottom five clubs between now and the end of the season, I think the writing is on the wall.

Verdict: given the lack of ambition and investment by the clubs owner they will be going back to the Championship.

Key Facts with 10 games to go:

  • 37 Points Wigan have taken from their last 10 games over past two seasons
  • 3 Times Aston Villa, QPR and Reading will play other bottom-five teams
  • 12 Average league position of QPR’s opponents in remaining 10 games
  • 6 Matches the bottom five have won between them in their last six games
  • 3 Times a team have been above the bottom five with 10 games to go but been relegated (Blackpool in 2011, Wimbledon 2000, Sunderland 1997)
  • 42 Highest points total for a relegated club since Premier League reduced to 20 teams – West Ham in 2003
  • 33 Lowest points total for a club to stay up since Premier League reduced to 20 teams – West Brom in 2005
  • 4 Occasions 40 points has been needed to ensure survival since 1995-96 (source Guardiannews.com)

Final verdict: Goodbye Aston Villa, Southampton and Reading.

Come on QPR!!!

(photo source – screen shot from Google.com)

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Norwich v Southampton: Squad sheets

Mauricio Pochettino manager of Southampton signals from the bench during the Barclays Premier League match between Southampton and Everton
Mauricio Pochettino manager of Southampton signals from the bench during the Barclays Premier League match between Southampton and Everton

It would be nice to pretend that every match was a dream tie, a spectacle to behold, goals galore, world-class striking talent on display and a non-stop televisual feast – okay so that was the case when Manchester Utd played Real Madrid earlier this week. But on Saturday March 9th, 2013 Norwich takes on Southampton.

This match, while being none of the above, is important in it’s own right and nothing should be taken away from it.

At the start of the season Norwich was the team of the moment. They were punching well above their weight and at one point sat a lofty fifth in the Premier League table. Over the past few weeks Norwich have played some pretty dour matches and the results have seen them drop uncomfortably to the bottom half of the table. With ten games remaining they have a choice – either start picking up points and climb into the top half of the table, or, continue with a bad run of form and get sucked into the battle against relegation.

Southampton on the other hand is just three points above the drop zone. With new manager – Mauricio Pochettino – at the helm, over the past few weeks the team has picked up some valuable points and has been playing some wonderful attacking football. However, two loses in a row, including last weekends surprise defeat against bottom club QPR has put them right back in trouble and only a win will be good enough.

Match Facts:

Venue: Carrow Road, Norwich

Last season’s result: N/A – Southampton were not in the Premier League last season.

Norwich form guide: LWDDDL

Southampton form guide: LLWDLL

Norwich leading scorer: Holt – 5

Southampton leading scorer: Lambert – 12

Possible team line-ups:

Norwich 4-4-2: Bunn, Bassong, Turner, Martin, Garrido, Johnson, Howson, Snodgrass, Pilkington, Holt, Hoolahan

Manager: Chris Hughton

Southampton 4-4-2: Boruc, Yoshida, Fonte, Shaw, Clyne, Cork, Schneiderlin, Lallana, Puncheon, Lambert, Ramirez

Manager: Mauricio Pochettino

Norwich subs from: Camp, Rudd, Whittaker, Fox, Jackson, Kamara, E Bennett, Becchio, Barnett, Tierney, R Bennett, Murphy

Norwich injuries: Tettey (16 Mar), Ruddy (20 Mar), Surman (knee, Aug)

Southampton subs from: K Davis, Gazzaniga, Hooiveld, S Davis, Rodriguez, Fox, Forren, Mayuka, Do Prado, Ward-Prowse, Chaplow

Southampton injuries: None

Additional Information:

  • Norwich have failed to score in five of their past seven league games
  • Premier League meetings between these two sides average 4.5 goals per game
  • Southampton have won just one of their last seven league games
  • 37% of Norwich’s goals this season have been headed, the most in the league
  • Southampton have thrown away 27 points from leading positions, the most in the Premier League
  • Norwich have not had a penalty in the league (Source guardiannews.com)

Prediction: Norwich 0 Southampton 1

(photo by Ian Walton/Getty Images)

How to avoid the drop

The ‘drop’, ‘going down’, ‘getting relegated’ all terms English Premier League soccer fans have come to know and love when it comes to watching which three teams will finish bottom of the league.

Affectionately know as ‘the drop’ the three teams with the fewest points when the season concludes in May will see their position in the Premier League come to an end and the following season(s) they will spend their time playing in the lower leagues of English soccer.

The drop normally co insides not only with a huge loss of advertising, commercial revenue (up to $50m), but can spell disaster for the club in general. They can no longer attract the top players, many of the current players in the team leave the club to play elsewhere, the attendance of the much needed fan base and the revenue from the tickets/season ticket sales declines severely, and a club which once found themselves comfortably in the black, can soon find themselves in the red and struggling for financial survival.

Many clubs who have been relegated and had hoped for a quick return to the Premiership have found themselves languishing in the lower divisions for years; some have gone into administration while some have never recovered – professionally or financially.

So how do teams avoid the drop?

Make sure the team has more than 40 points by the end of the season. It has long been the belief that teams who can accrue 40 points or more during the season are safe, and since the Premier League started in 1992, this has generally been the case. But there have been seasons when 34 points were enough, as well as seasons when teams needed 44 points to survive.

Try and avoid being bottom at Christmas – the ‘Curse of Christmas’ refers to a trend where the team at the bottom at Christmas has been relegated – this has happened every year except one (2004/5 West Bromwich Albion) since the league started in 1992. Their survival lead to the term ‘the great escape’ which is now given to a team, who, it was thought, had no chance of staying up, and yet manages to survive.

Don’t do a Swindon Town – in the 1993/94 season, Swindon won five games out of forty two and conceded 100 goals (still a Premier League Record). They were relegated and have never made it back to the Premier League.

Try and do better than Sunderland – Sunderland hold the record for the ‘worst ever Premier League Club’, during the 2005/6 season they managed just three wins and only got fifteen points – there were relegated.

Hire Harry Redknapp as the manager – having engineered the ‘great escape’ for Portsmouth from what seemed like an impossible survival position in 2006, Redknapp is currently trying to perform the same feet with his current team Queens Park Rangers (and yes they were bottom at Christmas).

Sadly there is no magic formula to avoid ‘the drop, it all comes down to hard work, sheer belief, and luck. Along with having your no.1 striker hit top form in the last few months of the season, having the opportunity to sell the teams dodgy goal keeper in the January transfer window, hoping that all the teams around you start to loose more games than you do, and above all, making sure you are not bottom of the league at Christmas. Good luck Queens Park Rangers!